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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/31 11:50
Lack of Support Pushes Livestock Complex Lower
No new cash cattle sales have been reported Thursday and while a couple of
clean-up deals could still be noted before the week's end, it's looking like
the bulk of this week's business is done.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Thursday's noon hour as
support for the marketplace is minimal. No new cash cattle trade has developed
and it's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is essentially done.
December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down
$2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 271.54 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,900 metric tons
(mt) for 2024 were down 17% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week
average. The three largest increases were from South Korea (4,900 mt), China
(3,200 mt) and Japan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 44,800 mt for 2024 were up
noticeably from the previous week and up 16% from the prior 4-week average. The
three largest buyers were Mexico (17,700 mt), China (10,400 mt) and Japan
(4,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is continuing to trade lower, but thankfully
Thursday's weaker tone is mostly trading sideways with Wednesday's close as
traders don't seem as pressured as they were earlier in the week. December live
cattle are down $0.22 at $186.20, February live cattle are down $0.65 at
$186.40, and April live cattle are down $0.85 at $186.75. No new cash cattle
sales have been noted, and it's likely the bulk of this week's trade is
essentially done. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have
traded for mostly $190, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and
Northern dressed cattle have traded for $296 to $298, which is steady to $3.00
lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left on
showlists are around $193 in the South and $299 plus in the North.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.58 ($317.86) and select up $1.28
($288.04) with a movement of 91 loads (48.52 loads of choice, 20.24 loads of
select, 8.48 loads of trim and 13.73 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as the market is cautiously
following in live cattle shadow -- not wanting to do anything counter to what
the live cattle complex does. And even though demand has continued to remain
strong in the countryside for both feeders and calves, and some of the recent
moisture has helped feeding conditions, traders don't seem concerned about
anything besides the market's technical state right now. November feeders are
down $0.52 at $244.97, January feeders are down $1.40 at $240.57, and March
feeders are down $1.67 at $238.17.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is now trading lower but the market can't point to
Thursday's export report and blame a lack of demand. The export report shared
that 44,800 mt were sold. Instead, Thursday's weakness seems to be a mere pause
in the road for traders as they want to see what market fundamentals are going
to do before they advance the contracts any higher. And as a side note, it's
worth mentioning that most of the nearby contracts are currently trading at
contract highs. December lean hogs are down $0.17 at $84.20, February lean hogs
are down $0.45 at $85.25, and April lean hogs are down $0.02 at $88.02.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/30/2024 is up $1.15 at $87.93, and
the actual index for 10/29/2024 is up $1.05 at $86.78. Hog prices are
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality.
However, we can see that only 435 head have traded and that the market's
five-day rolling average sits at $83.00. Pork cutouts total 157.71 loads with
135.36 loads of pork cuts and 22.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up
$0.70, $102.31.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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